Detecting Early Warning Bank Distress Signals in Nigeria: A Multi Discriminant Analysis Approach.

The multi discriminant analysis model (MDA) as proposed by Altman in 1968 was applied to a group of failed and healthy banks in Nigeria to ascertain if MDA is a veritable tool to predict business failure in the Nigerian banking industry. Data was gathered for a five year period for ten (three failed and seven healthy) sampled banks. The results show that MDA is a veritable tool for assessing the financial health of banks. As such, it has high predictive power to deduce from a set of these ratios the likelihood of failure or otherwise. The MDA not only predicts business failure but revealed most importantly that the warning signals of impending failure became manifested one to two years before the studied banks actually failed. Keywords: Bank distress; multi discriminant analysis; predicting business failure; ratios

Critical Infrastructure Protection Approaches: Analytical Outlook on Capacity Responsiveness to Dynamic Trends

Overview: Critical infrastructures (CIs) – any asset with a functionality that is critical to normal societal functions, safety, security, economic or social wellbeing of people, and disruption or destruction of which would have a very significant negative societal impact. CIs are clearly central to the normal functioning of a nation’s economy and require to be protected from both intentional and unintentional sabotages. It is important to correctly discern and aptly manage security risks within CI domains. The protection (security) of CIs and their networks can provide clear benefits to owner organizations and nations including: enabling the attainment of a properly functioning social environment and economic market, improving service security, enabling integration to external markets, and enabling service recipients (consumers, clients, and users) to benefit from new and emerging technological developments. To effectively secure CI system, firstly, it is crucial to understand three things - what can happen, how likely it is to happen, and the consequences of such happenings. One way to achieve this is through modelling and simulations of CI attributes, functionalities, operations, and behaviours to support security analysis perspectives, and especially considering the dynamics in trends and technological adoptions. Despite the availability of several security-related CI modelling approaches (tools and techniques), trends such as inter-networking, internet and IoT integrations raise new issues. Part of the issues relate to how to effectively (more precisely and realistically) model the complex behavior of interconnected CIs and their protection as system of systems (SoS). This report attempts to address the broad goal around this issue by reviewing a sample of critical infrastructure protection approaches; comprising tools, techniques, and frameworks (methodologies). The analysis covers contexts relating to the types of critical infrastructures, applicable modelling techniques, risk management scope covered, considerations for resilience, interdependency, and policy and regulations factors. Key Findings: This research presents the following key findings: 1. There is not a single specific Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) approach – tool, technique, methodology or framework – that exists or emerges as a ‘fit-for-all’; to allow the modelling and simulation of cyber security risks, resilience, dependency, and impact attributes in all critical infrastructure set-ups. 2. Typically, two or more modelling techniques can be (need to be) merged to cover a broader scope and context of modelling and simulation applications (areas) to achieve desirable highlevel protection and security for critical infrastructures. 3. Empirical-based, network-based, agent-based, and system dynamics-based modelling techniques are more widely used, and all offer gains for their use. 4. The deciding factors for choosing modelling techniques often rest on; complexity of use, popularity of approach, types and objectives of user Organisation and sector. 5. The scope of modelling functions and operations also help to strike the balance between ‘specificity’ and ‘generality’ of modelling technique and approach for the gains of in-depth analysis and wider coverage respectively. 6. Interdependency and resilience modelling and simulations in critical infrastructure operations, as well as associated security and safety risks; are crucial characteristics that need to be considered and explored in revising existing or developing new CIP modelling approaches. Recommendations: Key recommendations from this research include: 1. Other critical infrastructure sectors such as emergency services, food & agriculture, and dams; need to draw lessons from the energy and transportation sectors for the successive benefits of: i. Amplifying the drive and efforts towards evaluating and understanding security risks to their infrastructure and operations. ii. Support better understanding of any associated dependencies and cascading impacts. iii. Learning how to establish effective security and resilience. iv. Support the decision-making process linked with measuring the effectiveness of preparedness activities and investments. v. Improve the behavioural security-related responses of CI to disturbances or disruptions. 2. Security-related critical infrastructure modelling approaches should be developed or revised to include wider scopes of security risk management – from identification to effectiveness evaluations, to support: i. Appropriate alignment and responsiveness to the dynamic trends introduced by new technologies such as IoT and IIoT. ii. Dynamic security risk management – especially the assessment section needs to be more dynamic than static, to address the recurrent and impactful risks that emerge in critical infrastructures

Predicting Corporate Business Failure in the Nigerian Manufacturing Industry

This paper employed ratio analysis, and in particular the multi discriminant analysis model in predicting and detecting failing businesses in the manufacturing and other sectors of the Nigerian economy. Data were gathered for a five year period for eleven firms sampled from the manufacturing, oil marketing and the conglomerates sectors of the Nigerian economy. The result revealed that MDA is a veritable tool for assessing the financial health of firms in Nigeria. Accordingly MDA has high predictive power to deduce from a set of ratios the likelihood of failure or otherwise. It is remarkable to note that the MDA model not only predicts business failure but revealed most importantly that the warning signals of impending failure can be revealed one to two years before the actual failure. Keywords: Multi discriminant analysis; corporate failure; firm financial health; corporate bankruptcy predictor model

Improving cyber security in industrial control system environment.

Integrating industrial control system (ICS) with information technology (IT) and internet technologies has made industrial control system environments (ICSEs) more vulnerable to cyber-attacks. Increased connectivity has brought about increased security threats, vulnerabilities, and risks in both technology and people (human) constituents of the ICSE. Regardless of existing security solutions which are chiefly tailored towards technical dimensions, cyber-attacks on ICSEs continue to increase with a proportionate level of consequences and impacts. These consequences include system failures or breakdowns, likewise affecting the operations of dependent systems. Impacts often include; marring physical safety, triggering loss of lives, causing huge economic damages, and thwarting the vital missions of productions and businesses. This thesis addresses uncharted solution paths to the above challenges by investigating both technical and human-factor security evaluations to improve cyber security in the ICSE. An ICS testbed, scenario-based, and expert opinion approaches are used to demonstrate and validate cyber-attack feasibility scenarios. To improve security of ICSs, the research provides: (i) an adaptive operational security metrics generation (OSMG) framework for generating suitable security metrics for security evaluations in ICSEs, and a list of good security metrics methodology characteristics (scope-definitive, objective-oriented, reliable, simple, adaptable, and repeatable), (ii) a technical multi-attribute vulnerability (and impact) assessment (MAVCA) methodology that considers and combines dynamic metrics (temporal and environmental) attributes of vulnerabilities with the functional dependency relationship attributes of the vulnerability host components, to achieve a better representation of exploitation impacts on ICSE networks, (iii) a quantitative human-factor security (capability and vulnerability) evaluation model based on human-agent security knowledge and skills, used to identify the most vulnerable human elements, identify the least security aspects of the general workforce, and prioritise security enhancement efforts, and (iv) security risk reduction through critical impact point assessment (S2R-CIPA) process model that demonstrates the combination of technical and human-factor security evaluations to mitigate risks and achieve ICSE-wide security enhancements. The approaches or models of cyber-attack feasibility testing, adaptive security metrication, multi-attribute impact analysis, and workforce security capability evaluations can support security auditors, analysts, managers, and system owners of ICSs to create security strategies and improve cyber incidence response, and thus effectively reduce security risk.PhD in Manufacturin

The Impact of Adopting Electronic Banking in Nigeria Economy: Issues and Challenges

This study examines the “impact of adopting electronic system of banking in Nigeria on the Economy, using Lagos, Abuja, Abia, Anambra and Port-harcourt as areas of concentration. Thus, the paper x-rays the implication of e- banking with a view of exposing the possible challenges it posses to the Nigeria Economy, while employing aggregated approach. Analytically, this study will employ descriptive statistics to highlight or overview the effectiveness of the electronic banking policy of the Central Bank of Nigeria. The study was informed by the doubts as regards the effectiveness of various economic policies achieving developmental goals of Nigeria. Therein, the recent evolution of electronic money poses interesting questions for policy makers all over the world. This work also seeks to evaluate the policies of the Central Bank of Nigeria as well as to proffer valuable recommendations on the execution of e- banking initiative in Nigeria. The study presents significant recommendations such as availability of sufficient and well functioning infrastructural facilities (notably electricity), harmonization of fiscal and monetary policy, regular assessment of the performance of electronic banking channels individually and collectively; consideration of the present state and structure of the economy; redesigning of the monetary policy framework towards economic growth, whilst managing inflation. In conclusion, the shift towards e-banking in Nigeria seems to be beneficial though, it comes with high level of concern over security and management of cost savings resulting from its implementation. Keywords:  Electronic Banking, Monetary policy , Developmental Goals and Economic growth

Security Culture in Industrial Control Systems Organisations: A Literature Review

Industrial control systems (ICS) are a key element of a country’s critical infrastructure, which includes industries like energy, water, and transport. In recent years, an increased convergence of operational and information technology has been taking place in these systems, increasing their cyber risks, and making security a necessity. People are often described as one of the biggest security risks in ICS, and historic attacks have demonstrated their role in facilitating or deterring them. One approach to enhance the security of organisations using ICS is the development of a security culture aiming to positively influence employees’ security perceptions, knowledge, and ultimately, behaviours. Accordingly, this work aims to review the security culture literature in organisations which use ICS and the factors that affect it, to provide a summary of the field. We conclude that the factors which affect security culture in ICS organisations are in line with the factors discussed in the general literature, such as security policies and management support. Additional factors related to ICS, such as safety culture, are also highlighted. Gaps are identified, with the limited research coverage being the most prominent. As such, proposals for future research are offered, including the need to conduct research with employees whose roles are not security related

Exploring the Security Culture of Operational Technology (OT) Organisations: The Role of External Consultancy in Overcoming Organisational Barriers

Operational Technology (OT) refers to systems that control and monitor industrial processes. Organisations that use OT can be found in many sectors, including water and energy, and often operate a nation's critical infrastructure. These organisations have been under a digitalisation process, which along with increasing regulatory pressures have necessitated changes in their cybersecurity practices. The lack of internal resources has often compelled these organisations to turn to external consultancy to enhance their security. Given the differences between OT and Information Technology (IT) security practices and that OT cybersecurity is still in its infancy, developing a security culture in OT environments remains a challenge, with little research investigating this topic. We have conducted 33 interviews with professionals with a security related role working in various OT sec-tors in the UK, on the subject of security culture development. Our analysis indicates three key organisational barriers to the development of a security culture: governance structures, lack of communication between functions, and the lack of OT cybersecurity expertise. Subsequently, the role of consultants and security solution vendors in overcoming these barriers through consultancy is demonstrated. We therefore argue that these stakeholders play a crucial part in the development of security culture in OT and conclude with recommendations for these organisations

The Structure of the Nigerian Banking Sector and its Impact on Bank Performance

This paper attempts to measure the market structure and competition in the consolidated Nigerian banking industry, as well as investigated the impact of the banking sector structure on bank performance. A time-series regression analysis was applied to a ten-year data period (2001-2010) to evaluate the relationship and the impact of banking sector structure, other explanatory variables on bank performance. Significant findings include that the Nigerian banking sector is oligopolistic in structure and that market concentration positively and significantly impacts on bank performance. These results suggest that market concentration is a major determinant of bank profitability in Nigeria. The structure of the Nigerian banking sector and thus the performance of banks may be improved if the sector is allowed to exploit the synergistic effect of market-induced consolidation. Keywords: Concentration; banking sector structure; relationship; performance

How Corporate Diversification affects Excess Value and Excess Profitability: A study of Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria.

This paper examines the relationship between excess value and excess profitability using deposit money banks in Nigeria as focal points of the study. The study relied on historic accounting data generated from financial (annual) reports and accounts of sampled banks between the ten-year period covered by the study. Borrowing from previous studies, appropriate regression and correlation equations were formulated to measure the relationship between excess value and excess profitability of Nigerian banks. The regression and correlation analyses revealed that the correlation is positive and significantly different from zero. This implies that there is significant relationship between excess value and excess profitability of deposit money banks in Nigeria. Thus the study provides evidence that there is a significant relationship between excess value and excess profitability of both diversified and standalone banks. Keywords: Diversification; excess value; excess profitability; stand alone banks

Impact of Corporate Diversification on the Market Value of Firms: A study of Deposit Money Banks Nigerian

This paper investigates the impact of diversification on banks market value. Many studies have been conducted on the effect of diversification on firm value. From a theoretical view point, it is commonly accepted that if the costs of diversification exceed its benefits, the market will discount the share price of diversified firms. The paper hypothesized that diversification does not impact significantly on market value of banks in Nigeria. Adopting an Ex-post facto research design and applying OLS, the regression results at 5% significant level of significance rejected the null hypothesis and thereby accepting the alternate. This suggests that corporate diversification impacts significantly on the market value of banks, implying that diversification in Nigerian banks impacts significantly on the market value of the diversified banks. Keywords: Diversification; market value; regression; banks